Full implementation of the BRI will have occurred by 2049 with the majority by 2040. Up to 152 countries (70% of the global total) are an active participant in the BRI with Africa the highest regionally including 38 Sub-Saharan African countries. By April 2020 over 3,000 projects valued in excess of $4 trillion had been established which will over-double to 7,000 projects by 2050. There were $141.5 billion in new BRI contracts in 2020. $1.25 trillion had been invested in the BRI by May 2019 with up to $8 trillion overall representing the biggest infrastructural initiative in history.
China has accounted effectively for more than 90% of the BRI’s funding that had already reached $926 billion by 2016. Around $150 billion annually will be accounted for by Chinese financial institutions with 2019 BRI investment already at $133.4 billion. 2040 Global GDP will be increased by $7.1 trillion (a 4.2% direct increase) and by 8.3% from 2019 due to the BRI. Even by 2030 global GDP would have been directly increased by 0.7% and $1 trillion from the BRI. 56 countries will have their future annual 2040 GDP increased by over $10 billion while regionally for example Central Asia and Russia’s 2040 GDP will be 18% greater.
China is already the global leader in many Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies such as renewable energy, blockchain, cloud computing, AI, autonomous vehicles, 5G, and the IoT for example that will be exported as part of the Digital Silk Road. Already by 2019 overall more than 30 Fibre-optic telecommunications infrastructural cables, at 10% of the cost of satellite data, had been laid globally as well as 10 underwater cables by Huawei as well as the Transoceanic fibre optic cable. Huawei began in 2017 to build the 13,000 km Pakistan East African Cable Express (PEACE) connecting Pakistan (Gwadar) with Kenya and Djibouti in 2019 with future extension to Egypt and South Africa and Nigeria to be completely covered by 2025.
In total 34 Chinese companies by January 2020 were constructing 398 smart cities including 5G projects in 106 countries including India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Turkey. JD.com announced in 2017 plans to open twenty autonomous warehouses along the BRI for e-commerce expansion as will Alibaba who also providing fintech services in India and South-East Asia. China had already constructed over a minimum 110 GW of renewable energy across the BRI by 2019 including at least 38 GW in Africa, 56 GW in Asia, and 17 GW in Latin America at over a minimum $100 billion investment with $27 billion in Africa, $62 billion in Asia, and $13 billion in Latin America. China will invest a minimum $644 billion to construct at least 644 GW of renewable power capacity in 38 Belt and Road countries by 2030.
Chinese BRI projects in Europe totalled around $71.1 billion in 2019 with investment in active rail projects totalling $31.4 billion in Eastern Europe. The Budapest-Belgrade High-Speed Railway for example will connect Central European energy and steel to Greece’s Piraeus port in 11 days. Latin American projects reached $72.7 billion in 2019 including the $2.4 billion 11 GW Sao Simao Hydroelectric dam in Belo Monte that will connect to Sao Paulo’s grid through a 2,084 km ‘electric super highway’. African projects accounted for $467 billion investment by November 2019. China has also already constructed 70% of African telecommunications infrastructure. By September 2018 the China Railway Construction Corporation had already constructed 10,605 km of railways and 4,800 km of motorways creating 50,000 local jobs. 12 African ports overall are already included as part of the BRI.
The $20 billion New Cairo to be unveiled in 2050 will be bigger than Madrid at 714 km2 with a 23 km2 park, Africa’s tallest tower at 385 m, biggest church, the largest opera house outside of Europe, an innovation technology park, and 40,000 hotels with a six million population. The 1.8 GW Benban solar park is also the fourth largest globally. The $1 billion Hawassa Industrial Park in Ethiopia will be a leading light manufacturing centre. The $8.7 billion Kenya-Uganda railway beginning in Mombasa is Kenya’s largest infrastructure project since independence. The Nigerian $5.8 billion 3 GW Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project opened in 2017. The $8 billion Modderfontein New City in South Africa is being constructed while 1.17 GW of South African solar and wind energy projects have also been constructed.
South and South-East Asia had received around $426 billion investment by 2019. The historic 453 km Haramain High-Speed Railway between Makkah and Madinah will occur in Saudi Arabia. The $10 billion Khorgos dry port with an accompanying $2 billion Khorgos-Eastern Gate SEZ will have almost $1 billion exports in electric batteries as well as robotics. India’s projects include the $30 billion Amaravati Sustainable Capital City and the $30 billion Madhya Pradesh Rural Connectivity Project while the $25 billion Kunming-Calcutta High-Speed Rail route has also been proposed. Over $8 billion has also been invested in 8.76 GW of Indian wind and solar projects. China built a $6.1 billion 142 km high-speed railway in Indonesia from Jakarta to Bandung while $21 billion invested in Indonesian hydropower includes the 9 GW Kayan River project.
Malaysian smart cities include the $100 billion Forest City and the $10.62 billion Melaka Gateway Port engineering $30.89 billion to Malaysian GDP by 2030. A $1 billion historic AI park is being developed by SenseTime to develop Malaysian robotics and big data and Alibaba’s AI City Brain is being harnessed by Kuala Lumpur. The Gwadar port in Baluchistan, Pakistan, will have a $2 billion 923-hectare SEZ, 300 MW solar power plant, 400 million tonne cargo by 2045, and $300 billion GDP by 2050. There is also a $15 billion high-speed railway between Karachi and Peshawar and $20 billion investment in 14.17 GW of Pakistani renewable projects as well as 4 GW of 900 km HVDC transmission lines. By 2050 Asia’s share of global GDP will increase to over 50% reaching this by 2040 by PPP. By GDP in 2030 Asia will make up half of the global top 30.